By Ellen Fruchtman, President
If you’ve scanned the headlines lately, the holiday predictions are sending mixed signals. National Jeweler’s article, “Deloitte Thinks the Holidays Will Be Merry, PwC Isn’t So Sure”, published September 2025, lays out the contrast: Deloitte sees modest growth, while PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) warns of a pullback.
So, what should you believe?
Here’s the catch. Many of these reports are crafted for mass retail audiences and broad consumer segments. They don’t always reflect the reality of a fine jeweler with a more selective clientele.
Take Gen Z, for example. Most of the commentary zeroes in on Gen Z (roughly ages 17 to 27). Yes, the older edge of that group may begin entering the engagement ring market. But let’s be blunt: someone who is truly planning to get engaged will do so, even in a cautious economy. Meanwhile, the average engagement ring buyer is closer to 30–32. They’re more established with higher earnings. That’s more your customer.
Now, here’s what the studies actually say:
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Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Forecast: Deloitte predicts holiday retail sales will rise between 2.9% and 3.4% year-over-year, with total sales reaching approximately $1.61–$1.62 trillion. (Read Deloitte’s full forecast here)
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PricewaterhouseCoopers’ 2025 Holiday Outlook: PwC surveyed 4,000 U.S. consumers and found they expect overall holiday spending to drop about 5%, with gift spending down around 11%. The steepest pullback is expected among Gen Z, who plan to cut budgets by ~23%. (Read PwC’s full outlook here)
So yes, Deloitte is optimistic, seeing modest growth. PricewaterhouseCoopers is more cautious, warning of contraction.
But here’s what matters more than any forecast: your specific market, your established customers, your trajectory. If your client base is primarily Gen X and Boomers, people with more stable incomes and clearer buying habits, they’re less likely to pull back dramatically. They don’t tend to shift entirely because of macro headlines.
If you’ve built the relationships, know your clients, and had your holiday plans in place well before now, you’re not at the mercy of these forecasts.
So, what should you believe? Believe in your business. Believe in your market. Use the research reports as tools, not oracles. The success of your season will come down not to wild swings in consumer sentiment, but to how well you stay true to who you serve.
If you’d like to discuss your holiday season (and beyond) contact us. We’d love to serve you, too!
